The NFL Playoffs began with an up and down Super Wild Card weekend and everyone was having a good time. The Chargers wasted a massive lead, the Bucs flopped Monday’s prime time and the Bills flirted with a complete disaster against the Dolphins. Oh, and there was a lot more. The results have been ugly in that area, in part due to Buffalo’s inexplicable collapse late in the first half, and there are fewer games to handicap at this time of year. Unfortunately we’re moving on and the divisional round starts here on Saturday.
Before we dive into this week’s map, let’s assess the performance of the entire season.
- Wild cards: 1-4
- Season 2022: 49-42-2
Get these winners.
TEASER: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) vs. New York Giants
That’s pretty square, which scares me, but I think there’s value here. Kansas City should be able to come home against an overwhelmed Jacksonville team and Andy Reid is 30-6 with more than 10 days of prep. New York is a public side at this point, but Philadelphia have the residual advantage, the (much) more talented roster and the ability to create a game plan to keep Daniel Jones in the bag. give me the favourites.
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
There’s all sorts of sharp action against Buffalo here, pushing the lineup forward despite public opinion of Cincinnati as an underdog. The Bills played with their food last week and need to get better at this. I think Buffalo will be able to heat up Joe Burrow given Cincinnati’s depleted offensive line, and Josh Allen comes in handy here.
Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 49 points
This has the feel of a possible shootout, but as mentioned above, the Bengals may not be able to protect Burrow the way they need to. I also think Cincinnati’s defense is a bit underrated and grabbing 49 here helps. Let’s get home at 27-17 or so.
Dallas Cowboys (+4) via San Francisco 49ers
Dallas probably isn’t as good offensively as it looked Monday night, and the Cowboys are seemingly always a public side. That’s not really the case here, though, as the Niners get all sorts of accolades with Brock Purdy at the helm. Purdy struggled mightily early against Seattle and although he found it out, Dallas is a different beast.
Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46.5 points
I trust both of these defenses to a decent degree, and I’m certainly less into the Purdy experience than most. I’m a little scared Dallas can beat runners-up San Francisco, but if that happens we’ll probably at least put the underdog on the window.