by Bettors have witnessed tremendous movement in the early stakes for the AFC championship line ahead of Sunday’s showdown between the Bengals and Chiefs.
Since the opening number was released by SI Sportsbook Sunday night, Cincinnati has gone from a 1.5-point underdog to a 1.5-point road favorite. There are a variety of reasons for the dramatic change, none greater than the status of Patrick Mahomes‘s injured ankle.
the Bengal and bosses will face off in the AFC Championship game for the second year in a row. Last season, Cincinnati upset Kansas City, 27-24, as a seven-point favorite on the road and cashed in for bettors on the money line at +255 odds. The question for the bettors this time is: Can Mahomes play at elite level despite an ankle injury?
Joe Burrow improved to 5-1 (83.3%) straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in playoff games after Cincinnati’s 27-10 excitement of the bills last week in the divisional round as a six-point underdog. The Bengals extended their winning streak to 10 games by conceding for +220 odds bettors and travel back to Arrowhead to become AFC champions in back-to-back seasons.
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The Bengals have put up a hugely profitable 8-1-1 ATS mark for bettors during this 10-game winning streak. Burrow, who is 3-0 SU and ATS in three career games against Mahomes, will make his debut at Arrowhead Stadium prefers beating a player who is probably heading for the league’s MVP honor for the second time in his six-year career. The two clubs met once this season in Week 13, with Cincinnati emerging as 2.5-point home underdogs in a 27-24 win.
AFC No. 1 Kansas City defeated AFC No. 4 Jacksonville 27-20 last Saturday. Andy Reid’s club finished top favorites of the division round, once again preventing bettors from capitalizing on the club’s 15th win of the season. Kansas City fell to a meager 1-7-1 (12.5%) ATS at Arrowhead Stadium while falling to a disappointing 5-12-1 (29.4%) compared to the total.
The Chiefs will host their fifth straight NFL-record AFC title game and go into the showdown with the Bengals on a six-game winning streak while boasting a record 11-1 record in their last 12 games. However, the Bengals are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight encounters against the Chiefs dating back to 2008.
Leading into Championship Sunday, respected Vegas money information helped SI bets Community have gone 9-4 on player suggestion bets and 6-1 on teaser investments since week 18!
Information is up 6.6 units in the NFL playoffs, leaving us with +12.65 units profit in NFL betting for the season sports illustrated.
Let’s dive into the AFC Championship!
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Game Odds
- Spread: Cincinnati -1.5 (-110) | Kansas City +1.5 (-110)
- money line: CIN (-125) | CC (+105)
- In total: 46.5 – About (-110) | Under (-110)
- Public (spread) betting odds: CIN 86% | CC 14%
- Game Info: January 29, 2023 | 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS
Bengal’s Straight Up Record: 14-4
Bengal vs Spread Record: 13-4-1
Chief’s straight-up record: 15-3
Chiefs against spread record: 5-12-1
Bet on Bengals Chiefs at SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
Cincinnati Offense vs. Kansas City Defense
Burrow Flourishes vs Chiefs
The Bengals finished the regular season with the fifth-best passing offense in the league (265 yards per game) and find a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that has conceded 38 total touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.
After the limit Trevor Lawrence to a touchdown pass in the past week, Kansas City has only allowed multiple touchdown passes in three of its last eight games.
However, will the club be able to put the brakes on Burrow who has dominated them in three meetings over the past two seasons? The former Heisman winner has developed well against Mahomes and the Chiefs, throwing for 982 yards and eight touchdowns and rushing scores in three matchups.
– Mixon produces in the division round
Joe Mixon exploded for only his second 100-yard rushing game of the season in a win over Buffalo. The versatile fullback, who entered the divisional round averaging just 38 rushing yards per game in his last four games, rushed for a game height of 105 yards and added a touchdown.
Mixon has rushed for 183 yards while catching 13 receptions for 68 yards in three career games against the Chiefs. The veteran defender failed to clarify concussion protocol for the Week 13 game, opening the door for Samaje Perine to shine. The backup jam raced 106 yards while snapping six receptions for 49 yards.
– Chase keeps shining
Yes’Marr Chase, who has nine touchdowns in his last nine games, has been at his best since returning from a hip injury earlier this season. The star wideout has hauled in 25 receptions for 417 yards and four touchdowns in three career games against the Chiefs. In six career playoff games, Chase has been dynamic, averaging 6.5 receptions per reception, 85.5 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Its “Anytime Touchdown” market at -105 odds will be a prime target for player supply bettors.
Kansas City Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
– How healthy is Mahomes?
Mahomes has had the NFL’s best passing offense, averaging 297.8 yards per game, but will his injured ankle prevent his usual immense performance?
The star signal caller, who has a career 40-10 (80%) record in the regular season and playoffs with Arrowhead, meets a 23rd-ranked Bengals pass defense that allows 229.1 yards per game. Mahomes was held for just 223 yards and a touchdown in the regular-season matchup. However, from three meters on the ground he was able to score a rushing hit.
The front-runner for the 2022 NFL MVP was sensational in the postseason with a 9-3 record. He averages 298 passing yards and 27.6 rushing yards while throwing 30 touchdowns and adding five rushing scores.
– Can Kansas City’s running game lead the way?
Kansas City’s running game, which ranks 20th (115.9 yards per game), saw the duo of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon become integral parts of the offensive.
Pacheco, who had 95 yards and a touchdown in his first career playoff game, found success in the first face-off against the Bengals when he totaled 82 yards and a touchdown.
While the rookie has been doing the bell cow work on the ground, veteran McKinnon has had eight touchdowns in his last seven games as he has become one of Mahomes’ best weapons in the air attack. McKinnon gained 51 yards on the ground while lapping two receptions for nine yards and a touchdown in the first matchup.
The savvy Stau, who hasn’t yarded in his last two games, will have to prove his pass-catching skills against a Bengals defense that has given the running backs 4.61 receptions per game.
– Which Kelce shows up?
The Chiefs’ offense is at its peak when Reid’s plan relies heavily on it Travis Kelce. The star tight end, which led the Chiefs in goals (152), receptions (110), yards (1,338) and touchdowns (12) during the regular season, was dominant against the Jaguars last week to post a game-high 14 Receives for 98 yards and two touchdowns.
In the Week 13 meeting, Kelce made just four receptions for 56 yards. In five career games (including playoffs) against Cincinnati, the veteran averaged just 64 yards per game while only reaching the end zone twice.
On the other hand, Kelce is a postseason star, averaging 86.8 yards and 14 touchdowns in 16 playoff games. In four AFC title games, the league’s top tight end has averaged 7.3 receptions while adding four touchdowns.
Player pick bettors must decide which Kelce will emerge: the one who showed modest numbers against the Bengals or the elite player who has dominated the postseason?
Cincinnati vs. Kansas City Best Bet
Mahomes, who is 9-3 in playoff games, has been hearing all week that he has never beaten Burrow in three matchups and that will serve as an added motivating factor. A home win at 80% combined with a 7-1-1 ATS record as an underdog leads us to invest in the plus odds offered on the moneyline.
With the whole world backing a scorching hot Burrow against a limping Mahomes, sportsbooks are probably heading for their biggest draw of the NFL season. In this situation, aligning with the needs of the home while countering the massive public steam is often lucrative. Simply backing that angle will land you on a No. 1 seed who is 8-1 SU at home this season.
BEST BET: Kansas City Moneyline (+105)
tendencies
- The Bengals are 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games
- Kansas City is 8-1 SU but only 1-7-1 ATS at home this season
- Cincinnati is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against Chiefs
- Burrow is 3-0 SU and ATS in his career against Mahomes
- Burrow is 5-1 SU and ATS in six career playoff games
- Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog
- Kansas City is 6-3 ATS in its last nine home playoff games
- In Kansas City’s last seven home games, the Under is 6-1
- The Under is 6-3-1 in Cincinnati’s 10 away games this season
2022 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 43-36-1 ATS + Props +12.65 U
2021 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 33-27-1 ATS + Props +9.75 U
2021 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 72-58-1ATS (55%)
